Pretty much fanfic. The gap between premise and execution remains limiting. Nvidia has adapted to changing markets better than anyone else up to this date which is what got them to the top in the first place. What makes you think "this time it's different?"
The fallacy I see repeatedly is someone spots a legitimate issue that could hurt Nvidia and by the time they have stood up the challenge to pull that off, Nvidia has pivoted and addressed it. Or more recently, they just acquired it like Groq.
For your premise to hold, you're asserting Nvidia is blind to inference. And yet his public positioning suggests otherwise.
I'm not saying the bet is against Nvidia the company as in how it executes, or enters new markets.
the bet is against the high margins in inference - when other capable players have entered the market as models become commoditized and the inference serving chips as well. Cerebrus ai etc are already showing custom silicon can make a dent while being served cheaper & faster.
I don't think anyone expects nvidia to "sink". We're concerned that competitive pressures and possible reductions from sky-high demand could make it really hard for nv to justify or maintain their current valuation.
That is, revenues may be unusually cyclically high.
It's going to be hard for frontier labs to keep spending at this rate without starting to make money. And even if they do, lower cost alternatives will likely impact at least to -some- extent how much of that revenue nv gets.
Yes, but the first mover advantage really is a thing. As an example, Yahoo really had to mess up to lose its spot to Google, but they were up to the challenge.
One thing to note is that as soon as Suno figured out hiphop artists were making $150,000 a year spewing AI songs onto Spotify, they imposed a 60 song per month download limit to stop that.
It won't, they'll just do analog recordings and remaster them with Codex, but it's pretty clear that anyone who finds a market inefficiency here will find that inefficiency addressed forthwith to keep the casino rigged in favor of the owners.
If one works in AI it's quite lucrative because shaving off a couple percent is worth the big bucks. But increasingly, there is enough training data for LLMs to do the same thing because the number of unique computations is fairly small.
As part of learning how to work with coding agents, I had them code up a bunch of games that had been in my head for years. They were never going to see the light of day otherwise because I have too much on my plate, but it was fun to make them come to life. I didn't do it for money and it's not my day job nor will it ever be but it was educational in learning the limits of Codex and Claude.
But the app stores have been hosed for years ever since the Zynga playbook and DLC. And on Android, if you release something honest and original without those things, it will just get copied and re-released filled with malware. So why bother?
I don't really miss the old days because despite all the nostalgia, engineers were really underpaid relative to equally difficult professions and they usually got terrible shares of equity compared to the C-suite. And has everyone forgotten EA spouse?
I think that's a common trait of tenured academics in the top 100 universities in the US. Don't know about Europe and elsewhere though. Not so much of nontenure track sorts who do all their dirty work.
I use state of the art frontier coding agents daily. While the fact they can code at all is a huge achievement, it's hard for to me to buy in to the looming AGI/2027 collapse scenario when they remain stymied by the simplest out of sample tasks and sabotage their own work frequently. But the blooming ignorance of everyone addicted to them is striking. These things are tools, used correctly they can do some amazing things, but going Tim the Toolman with them goes poorly.
Then there are the megacorporations of AI whose highly paid tech support folk happily copypasta your reported issues into Claude or Codex and paste its "solution" into an email as if you couldn't do that yourself and they don't even bother to check if the "solution" even works.
Einstein literally stated he was not influenced by the Michelson-Morley experiments, but it's a common myth that he was.
"When Ι asked him how he had learned of the Michelson Morley experiment, he told me that he had become aware of it through writings of Η. Α. Lοrentz, but only after 1905 had it come to his attention! "Otherwise" he said, "I would have mentioned it in my paper!" indeed, Einstein's 1905 paper contains no mention of Μichelson's experiment or references to Lorentz's papers."
Correcting a professor at MIT (head of the department alas) on this erroneous belief during a grad school interview cost me admission as he insisted otherwise and wouldn't back down. Ironically, one of my college professors was interviewed on NPR a week later and confirmed what I had stated.
Ask me what I think of checked out, tenured academics. Go ahead...
That may be true, but Lorentz specifically cited the MM experiments and was influenced by them, and Einstein cited and was influenced by Lorentz, so he was influenced, just one level removed.
It may also have been a social test — ie the polite thing to do in that circumstance is to say “oh wow, I thought I knew that one, weird. I’ll have to look that up again thank you” even if you know 100% that you’re correct. Weird social expectation thing.
It was the 1980s and that very well may have been what was going on, but if that's the game they're going to play then I have better places to play games. Ironically, I got several apologies from other MIT professors a few years later who ended up working with me on various things.
They'd also have to be self-assembling from the ground up or rely on human slaves. They'd need to understand the world much better. And they'd have to be incredibly more power efficient. These all remain hard problems right now. That said, you could swarm people with cheap drones (the predicted slaughterbots) that were assembled by robots that eventually break down I guess, but how is that any worse than a crazy human with a gun or what nation states do to people they deem enemies already? The worst these things seem capable of is an attack on the infrastructure and shutting down the Internet. Perhaps this is a great time to insure that our infrastructure is capable of operating autonomously indefinitely and hardening it against attack? But unfortunately, no VC or politician will touch that until something bad happens.
So broadly, a better educated Blake Lemoine IMO. What's disturbing to me is how fast and far some junior minion from the frontier labs was platformed all the way to the Wall Street Journal over a tweet that sounds exactly like every other anti-AI tweet. I share concerns about irresponsible deployments of AI, and we need technological literacy in the leadership, but America hates technocracy and prefers populism so buckle up.
> They'd also have to be self-assembling from the ground up or rely on human slaves. They'd need to understand the world much better. And they'd have to be incredibly more power efficient.
All robotics needs to drive deployment at scale is (1) useful intelligence & (2) performing novel valuable functions.
Both of these are satisfied by current tech (LLM + sensors + robotics) and the existing simplest use cases (assembly lines and repetitive tasks).
LLMs get you a moderately-intelligent, mostly-reliable orchestration layer of intelligence on top of deterministic hard robotics.
And that's enough for a lot of failure-tolerant, feedback-looped cases. E.g. reading 20 dials in a factory throughout the day or monitoring a production line visually, then figuring out what to do about a problem, then effecting that plan.
It'll be deployed in heavily utilized spaces at first, but will eventually trickle down throughout the economy.
And that will be when 'control over robots' starts to be an existential threat, for denial of critical services at the minimum.
And all of this will inevitably roll out as long as ROI is positive, because that's the way the world works.
With an open API, there are IMO paths to an LLM* cultivating one's algorithmic feeds to only show you what you actually want to see as opposed to engaging you by enraging you, but without regulation, the social media companies will block that by any means necessary.
And then, even if you did achieve a truly personalized feed, there will be accusations you're limiting your worldview to a filter bubble**. And sure, you are. Still beats algorithmic rage-baiting. It's up to you to figure out how much you wish to engage IMO, not some tech company or virtue signaling concern troll influencer.
The fallacy I see repeatedly is someone spots a legitimate issue that could hurt Nvidia and by the time they have stood up the challenge to pull that off, Nvidia has pivoted and addressed it. Or more recently, they just acquired it like Groq.
For your premise to hold, you're asserting Nvidia is blind to inference. And yet his public positioning suggests otherwise.
https://qz.com/nvidia-gtc-2026-jensen-huang-keynote-takeaway...
What makes you think they've hit some sort of metaphorical iceberg and all they'll do before they sink is rearrange deck chairs?
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